Executive Summary:

The Wagner Group was a Russia-based private military company (PMC) comprised of a network of businesses and mercenary groups that operated across the globe. Wagner was founded in 2014 by Dmitry Utkin and was financially and publicly fronted by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Stewart Bell, “In Prigozhin’s shadow, the Wagner Group leader who stays out of the spotlight,” Global News, June 30, 2023, https://globalnews.ca/news/9801903/prigozhin-wagner-group-leader-dmitry-utkin/. Following the death of Prigozhin in August 2023, the Wagner Group was technically disbanded and replaced with the Russian state-backed Volunteer and Expeditionary Corps. However, media and government forces continue to use the name Wagner Group in less detailed references to the current incarnations of the military and business entity.

In November 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defense absorbed the Wagner Group and divided it into two organizations: a Ukraine-focused defense network called the Volunteer Corps and the Expeditionary Corps, which oversees the Kremlin’s military deployments abroad. Within the Expeditionary Corps is the Africa Corps division, which specifically handles the former Wagner Group’s operations throughout the African continent. The post-Wagner network maintains troops across Ukraine, Libya, Sudan, Central African Republic (CAR), and Mali. With the December 2023 creation of the Africa Corps, the Kremlin formally expanded its operations into Burkina Faso and Niger in early 2024. “Wagner Group: Council adds 11 individuals and 7 entities to EU sanctions lists,” Council of the European Union, February 25, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/02/25/wagner-group-council-adds-11-individuals-and-7-entities-to-eu-sanctions-lists/; William Rampe, “What Is Russia’s Wagner Group Doing in Africa?,” Council on Foreign Relations, May 23, 2023, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-russias-wagner-group-doing-africa; “Treasury Targets Financier’s Illicit Sanctions Evasion Activity,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, July 15, 2020, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1058; Sam Mednick, “After Burkina Faso ousts French, Russia’s Wagner may arrive,” Associated Press, April 7, 2023, https://apnews.com/article/burkina-faso-russia-wagner-jihadi-02d9235279f0991cdb6ad3ebb4d3e546; Chris Ewokor in Abuja & Kathryn Armstrong, “Russian troops arrive in Niger as military agreement begins,” BBC News, April 12, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68796359. In July 2023, Wagner boasted a recruited troop size of more than 50,000 in Ukraine alone. Nathan Luna, Leah Vredenbregt, and Ivan Pereira, “What is the Wagner Group? The 'brutal' Russian military unit in Ukraine,” ABC News, June 23, 2023, https://abcnews.go.com/International/International/wagner-group-brutal-russian-military-group-fighting-ukraine/story?id=96665326; Irina Chevtayeva, “Russia: From convict to hero via Ukraine?,” Deutsche Welle, July 15, 2023, https://www.dw.com/en/russia-from-convict-to-hero-via-ukraine/a-66220143. As of February 2024, an estimated 5,000 Wagner-Kremlin-affiliated troops are deployed across Africa.Alessandro Adruino, “Wagner Group is now Africa Corps. What this means for Russia’s operations on the continent,” The Conversation, February 14, 2024, https://theconversation.com/wagner-group-is-now-africa-corps-what-this-means-for-russias-operations-on-the-continent-223253.

Upon its establishment, Wagner maintained close relationships with Russia’s Chief Intelligence Office (Glavnoye Razvedyvatelnoye Upravlenie or GRU), Federal Security Service (Federal'naya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti or FSB), and Foreign Intelligence Service (Sluzhba vneshney razvedki Rossiyskoy Federatsii or SVR).Colin P. Clark, “What Happens Next with the Wagner Group?,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, May 18, 2023, https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/05/what-happens-next-with-the-wagner-group/; “Annual Threat Assessment Of The U.S. Intelligence Community,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, February 6, 2023, https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2023-Unclassified-Report.pdf. Along with security services and paramilitary assistance, Wagner also launched disinformation campaigns for governments in exchange for resource concessions and diplomatic support.“What is Russia's Wagner mercenary group and where is its leader, Prigozhin?,” BBC News, July 6, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877.

As a PMC, Wagner was hired by governments for security or combat services. However, their services were also used to suppress public dissent of various administrations. Wagner held a notoriously violent record, as its contract soldiers were known to carry out indiscriminate attacks regardless of the scale of military operations. The U.S. Department of the Treasury designated Wagner as a significant transnational criminal organization on May 25, 2023, for rampant crimes against humanity and criminal activity. Chief among those crimes were mass executions, rape, child abductions, and physical abuse, which regularly occurred throughout countries in which Wagner fighters were deployed. “Treasury Sanctions the Head of the Wagner Group in Mali,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, May 25, 2023, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1502. The European Union added the Wagner Group to its sanctions list in April 2023.“What is Russia's Wagner mercenary group and where is its leader, Prigozhin?,” BBC News, July 6, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877; “Treasury Sanctions the Head of the Wagner Group in Mali,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, May 25, 2023, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1502; “Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine: Wagner Group and RIA FAN added to the EU's sanctions list,” Council of the European Union, April 13, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/04/13/russia-s-war-of-aggression-against-ukraine-wagner-group-and-ria-fan-added-to-the-eu-s-sanctions-list/.

Wagner was first involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2014, when Russia illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula and sponsored a revolt in eastern Ukraine.Nathan Luna, Leah Vredenbregt, and Ivan Pereira, “What is the Wagner Group? The 'brutal' Russian military unit in Ukraine,” ABC News, June 23, 2023, https://abcnews.go.com/International/International/wagner-group-brutal-russian-military-group-fighting-ukraine/story?id=96665326; “Assessing the Wagner Group’s Aborted Run on Moscow: What Comes Next?,” International Crisis Group, June 29, 2023, https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/russia-internal/assessing-wagner-groups-aborted-run-moscow-what-comes. Following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Wagner was once again brought into the fold and played a pivotal role in helping the Kremlin, after a months-long battle, secure control of the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut. That operation alone killed tens of thousands of civilians. “Assessing the Wagner Group’s Aborted Run on Moscow: What Comes Next?,” International Crisis Group, June 29, 2023, https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/russia-internal/assessing-wagner-groups-aborted-run-moscow-what-comes.

Wagner also established itself in Syria, deploying mercenaries to fight alongside Bashar al-Assad’s forces in September 2015.Elis Gjevori, “What the Wagner Group's insurrection means for the Middle East and Africa,” Middle East Eye, June 24, 2023, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/wagner-group-russia-insurrection-middle-east-africa; “What is Russia's Wagner mercenary group and where is its leader, Prigozhin?,” BBC News, July 7, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877; Shaun Walker, Kareem Shaheen, Martin Chulov, Spencer Ackerman and Julian Borger, “US accuses Russia of 'throwing gasoline on fire' of Syrian civil war,” Guardian, September 30, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/30/russia-launches-first-airstrikes-against-targets-in-syria-says-us; “Russia warns US against strikes on Islamic State in Syria,” CNN, September 11, 2014, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29154481; Ed Payne, Barbara Starr and Susannah Cullinane Russia launches first airstrikes in Syria,” CNN, September 30, 2015, https://www.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/; Dion Nissenbaum, Nathan Hodge, Sam Dagher, “U.S. Rebukes Russia Over Syria Strikes,” Wall Street Journal, September 30, 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-seeks-parliaments-approval-for-use-of-force-outside-russia-1443600142. Wagner trained Syrian fighters to protect the Assad regime and have also reportedly exported Syrian fighters to assist in other campaigns, specifically in Libya.Elis Gjevori, “What the Wagner Group's insurrection means for the Middle East and Africa,” Middle East Eye, June 24, 2023, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/wagner-group-russia-insurrection-middle-east-africa. It was reported in 2022 that Wagner also moved these same Syrian operatives from Libya to Ukraine in support of pro-Russian forces.Gordon Lubold, Nancy A. Youssef and Alan Cullison, “Russia Recruiting Syrians for Urban Combat in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say Moscow is looking for help from foreign fighters to take cities including Kyiv,” Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022, https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-recruiting-syrians-for-urban-combat-in-ukraine-u-s-officials-say-11646606234; Julian Borger, “Russia trying to recruit Syrians to fight in Ukraine, says Pentagon,” Guardian, March 7, 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/07/russia-trying-to-recruit-syrians-to-fight-in-ukraine-says-pentagon. Wagner has deployed mercenaries to Libya since October 2018, where they reportedly were “providing technical support for the repair of military vehicles, participating in combat operations and engaging in influence operations.”“UN experts: Libya’s Hifter got fighters from Russian company,” Associated Press, May 6, 2020, https://apnews.com/article/0c7d421396ae0c48f8f55c85e967c2ca. Wagner provided security and training to warlord Khalifa Haftar and his troops. In 2019, the mercenaries openly took part in Haftar's attack on the western Libyan government based in Tripoli.Silja Thoms, “Russia's Wagner Group: Where is it active?,” Deutsche Welle, June 25, 2023, https://www.dw.com/en/russias-wagner-group-where-is-it-active/a-66027220. Wagner has been accused of war crimes, including torture and indiscriminate killings, throughout the country.Silja Thoms, “Russia's Wagner Group: Where is it active?,” Deutsche Welle, June 25, 2023, https://www.dw.com/en/russias-wagner-group-where-is-it-active/a-66027220; Elis Gjevori, “What the Wagner Group's insurrection means for the Middle East and Africa,” Middle East Eye, June 24, 2023, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/wagner-group-russia-insurrection-middle-east-africa.

Beginning in 2017, Wagner provided auxiliary military support to several conflict-ridden African countries in exchange for access to precious metals and other resources. Consequently, in Sudan, CAR, Mali, and Burkina Faso, Wagner propped up controversial governments and protected dictators from coup attempts.William Rampe, “What Is Russia’s Wagner Group Doing in Africa?,” Council on Foreign Relations, May 23, 2023, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-russias-wagner-group-doing-africa. Wagner deployment has at times been justified by friendly governments as essential to counterterrorism support. However, Wagner troops exercised no restraint and were reportedly involved in large-scale civilian targeting. Wagner expanded Moscow’s influence throughout the African continent, creating increased tension between Russia and European governments struggling to retain support in their former colonies.“Wagner Group Operations in Africa,” ACLED, August 30, 2022, https://acleddata.com/2022/08/30/wagner-group-operations-in-africa-civilian-targeting-trends-in-the-central-african-republic-and-mali/.

Among Wagner’s most notorious deployments involve Mali and CAR. Wagner partnered with Mali’s transitional government in September 2021 to reportedly combat Islamist jihadist movements, specifically al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM).Steve Balestrieri, “Mali to Hire Wagner Group to Fight Terrorists as the EU Draws a Red Line Against Russia,” SOFREP, September 26, 2021, https://sofrep.com/news/mali-to-hire-wagner-group-to-fight-terrorists-as-the-eu-draws-a-red-line-against-russia/. On February 2, 2022, the Wagner Group arrived in Mali with the support of the Russian armed forces. More than 1,000 mercenaries were hired.Steve Balestrieri, “Mali to Hire Wagner Group to Fight Terrorists as the EU Draws a Red Line Against Russia,” SOFREP, September 26, 2021, https://sofrep.com/news/mali-to-hire-wagner-group-to-fight-terrorists-as-the-eu-draws-a-red-line-against-russia/. In CAR, Wagner provided political support to President Faustin-Archange Touadéra and his regime for unprecedented mining access. Wagner mercenaries first arrived in CAR in January 2018, eventually reaching a troop size of 1,890 in February 2023.Yousra Elbagir, “Wagner troops leave Central African Republic after 'refusing contracts with Russia',” Sky News, July 7, 2023, https://news.sky.com/story/wagner-troops-leave-central-african-republic-after-refusing-contracts-with-russia-12916846; Silja Thoms, “Russia's Wagner Group: Where is it active?,” Deutsche Welle, June 25, 2023, https://www.dw.com/en/russias-wagner-group-where-is-it-active/a-66027220. Wagner was quick to demonstrate unprecedented violence throughout both countries. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), which documents incidents of political violence around the world, estimates that Wagner was involved in 52% of civilian targeting in CAR, and 71% of political violence against civilians in Mali. Wagner targeted Fulani tribes they considered sympathetic to terrorist groups, further intensifying intercommunal rivalries and ethnic divisions throughout Mali. The violence perpetrated by Wagner has greatly overshadowed reported civilian targeting by insurgent groups.Broderick McDonald and Guy Fiennes, “The Wagner Group’s Growing Shadow In The Sahel: What Does It Mean For Counterterrorism In The Region?,” Modern War Institute at West Point, March 2, 2023, https://mwi.usma.edu/the-wagner-groups-growing-shadow-in-the-sahel-what-does-it-mean-for-counterterrorism-in-the-region/; “Wagner Group Operations in Africa,” ACLED, August 30, 2022, https://acleddata.com/2022/08/30/wagner-group-operations-in-africa-civilian-targeting-trends-in-the-central-african-republic-and-mali/.

Despite an interdependent relationship between Wagner and the Kremlin, differences of opinion, especially regarding Wagner’s autonomy, sparked public disputes between the organization and its benefactor. On June 23, 2023, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Russian defense officials had bombed Wagner troops in Ukraine, resulting in Prigozhin calling for an armed rebellion to oust Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu. A day later, the Wagner Group entered the Lipetsk region, about 225 miles south of Moscow. Immediate calls for Prigozhin’s arrest followed as his troops advanced into Rostov, where Russia maintains a military headquarters for the southern region that also oversees fighting in Ukraine. Putin responded to Wagner by bolstering security around Moscow, ordering anti-terror measures in several regions and granting broader legal powers to law enforcement. The mercenary group briefly occupied Rostov before President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus mediated the crisis, offering Wagner troops an “abandoned base” in Belarus. On June 27, Prigozhin flew into exile in Belarus under a deal that ended the rebellion. Russian authorities dropped the criminal case against the Wagner Group, but Putin announced Wagner would be shut down and its fighters would be given three choices: sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense, step down, or move to Belarus.“Amid strife with Kremlin, Wagner Group mercenaries enter Russian city,” CBS News, June 24, 2023, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-defense-ministry-investigation/; Rob Picheta, Simone McCarthy, Tara John, Mariya Knight, Lauren Kent, Katharina Krebs, Josh Pennington and Uliana Pavlova, “Putin vows to punish ‘armed uprising’ by Wagner militia as Russia is plunged into crisis,” CNN, June 24, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/23/europe/russia-mod-wagner-yevgeny-prigozhin-intl/index.html; Pjotr Sauer, “Belarusian leader confirms arrival of exiled Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin,” Guardian, June 27, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/27/belarus-exiled-wagner-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-ukraine; Phil Helsel, “What is the Wagner Group? A look at the mercenary group led by man accused of 'armed mutiny' in Russia,” NBC News, June 23, 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/what-is-the-wagner-group-rcna90923; “What is Russia's Wagner mercenary group and where is its leader, Prigozhin?,” BBC News, July 6, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60947877; “Why is Bakhmut important in the Russia-Ukraine war?,” Al Jazeera, May 21, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/21/why-is-bakhmut-important-in-the-russia-ukraine-war.

On August 23, 2023, media sources reported that a plane carrying Prigozhin and Wagner founder Dmitry Utkin crashed in Russia’s Tver region. All 10 passengers were killed. According to a Wagner-linked Telegram channel, the plane was shot down by Russian air defense. Russian officials claimed Prigozhin’s name was on the list of passengers.Max Seddon, “Yevgeny Prigozhin was passenger on crashed plane, Russian officials say,” Financial Times, August 23, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/812c9da3-80f2-4fe1-8fad-0b4441d1977a; “Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin 'on board' crashed Russian plane,” BBC News, August 23, 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733.

On November 2, 2023, the Ministry of Defense (Minoborony or MOD) released a statement claiming Wagner had “been finally disbanded” with many of their soldiers transferred to other units under the discretion of the MOD and its subsidiary bodies. “Amid Conflict With Russian Defense Ministry, Mercenaries Formerly Part Of Wagner Group Join Russian National Guard,” Middle East Media Research Institute, November 30, 2023, https://www.memri.org/reports/amid-conflict-russian-defense-ministry-mercenaries-formerly-part-wagner-group-join-russian; Anton Mardasov, “How Russia's Redut PMC forced rival Wagner to withdraw from Syria,” Al-Monitor, November 12, 2023, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/11/how-russias-redut-pmc-forced-rival-wagner-withdraw-syria. Wagner’s military components have since then come under the control of the GRU, Russia’s intelligence service organ of the MOD.Jack Watling, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, and Nick Reynolds, “The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24,” Royal United Service Institute for Defense and Security Studies, February 2024, https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Unconventional-Weapons-final-web.pdf. Since acquiring Wagner, the GRU divided Wagner’s activities into two sections. The first—the Volunteer Corps—is managed by Vladimir Alekseyev, the deputy chief of the GRU, covers operations in Ukraine. The other outfit, known as the Expeditionary Corps, is commanded by Andrei Averyanov and directed by his Service for Special Activities at the GRU, which plan and manage operational activities for the forementioned corps. The Expeditionary Corps is tasked with operations across Africa.Jack Watling, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, and Nick Reynolds, “The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24,” Royal United Service Institute for Defense and Security Studies, February 2024, https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Unconventional-Weapons-final-web.pdf. Although Wagner forces were expected to complete their mandates, the MOD launched a recruitment campaign for the “Africa Corps.” Frédéric Bobin and Morgane Le Cam, “‘Africa Corps’: Russia’s Sahel presence rebranded,” Le Monde (Paris), December 17, 2023, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2023/12/17/africa-corps-russia-s-sahel-presence-rebranded_6352317_124.html; David Brennan, “Russia Launches ‘Africa Corps’ as Putin Looks to Hurt US,” Newsweek, November 21, 2023, https://www.newsweek.com/russia-new-africa-corps-hamper-us-clout-libya-putin-sudan-wagner-1845516. As Russia’s official armed wing in Africa, the Africa Corps further strengthened the Kremlin’s military footprint on the continent. Although not officially confirmed, media sources, including Le Monde and online news publication the Conversation, have conjectured that the Africa Corps is a reference to the Afrika Korps led by Nazi field marshal Erwin Rommel, which fought in North Africa during World War II. Nazi Germany venerated Rommel and the battalion for their strategic successes in North Africa.Alessandro Arduino, “Wagner Group is now Africa Corps. What this means for Russia’s operations on the continent,” The Conversation, February 14, 2024, https://theconversation.com/wagner-group-is-now-africa-corps-what-this-means-for-russias-operations-on-the-continent-223253; Frédéric Bobin and Morgane Le Cam, “'Africa Corps': Russia's Sahel presence rebranded,” Le Monde, December 17, 2023, https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2023/12/17/africa-corps-russia-s-sahel-presence-rebranded_6352317_124.html.

Russia further expanded its presence across the Sahel in December 2023 when Niger’s junta government signed a document to increase its military cooperation with Moscow.Agence France Presse, “Russian Officials Visit Niger To Bolster Military Ties,” Radio Free Europe, December 4, 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-niger-military-delegation/32713468.html. With the Kremlin’s relationship with Niger’s junta formalized, the coup government further distanced itself from its former Western partners by terminating its sponsorship of two stabilization programs in the country, the European Union Capacity Building Mission (EUCAP Sahel Niger) and the EU Military Partnership Mission (EUMPM). The EUCAP was designed to build up Niger’s civil society, while the EUMPM attempted to strengthen Niger’s response to violent extremist insurgencies.“Niger ends security and defence partnerships with the EU,” Euractiv, December 5, 2023, https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/niger-ends-security-and-defence-partnerships-with-the-eu/. As of March 2024, it is unconfirmed if the aforementioned “military cooperation” will include the deployment of the Africa Corps.

Although the Africa Corps operates almost identically to the Wagner Group’s African units, the key difference is that the Africa Corps is a formal entity within the Russian Ministry of Defense, whereas Wagner was never an official arm of the Russian government. After months of speculation, Burkina Faso and Russia formalized their plans for greater military cooperation on January 25, 2024. Russia announced the deployment of 100 paramilitary fighters from the Africa CorpsJoe Inwood and Jake Tacchi, “Wagner in Africa: How the Russian mercenary group has rebranded,” BBC News, February 19, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68322230 to assist Burkina Faso in protecting its borders, securing the safety of the country’s junta leader, and protecting Burkinabe civilians from terror attacks.“Burkina Faso Opens Door for Russia’s Africa Corps,” Africa Defense Forum, February 20, 2024, https://adf-magazine.com/2024/02/burkina-faso-opens-door-for-russias-africa-corps/. Russia may reportedly deploy additional military personnel in the future. The Kremlin’s “military specialists” are contracted to provide training for Burkinabe forces.Katerina Hoije, “Russian Troops Begin Burkina Faso Deployment to Bolster Security,” BNN Bloomberg, January 24, 2024, https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russian-troops-begin-burkina-faso-deployment-to-bolster-security-1.2026130.

On February 7, 2024, Volunteer Corps leader Anton Yelizarov confirmed that the PMC had fully integrated with Russia’s national guard. He further announced the ongoing construction of “Cossack Camps,” a new Volunteer Corps base that is reportedly in Rostov, Russia. Joe Barnes, “New Wagner leader confirms group’s integration with Russian national guard,” Telegraph (London), February 7, 2024, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/07/wagner-leader-confirms-integration-with-russian-forces/.

Doctrine:

Although the Wagner Group did not promote a specific doctrine or philosophy, the group advanced Russian interests in either geostrategic or resource-rich countries experiencing political instability. The group was outwardly motivated by Russian nationalism. However, Wagner has also demonstrated the ability to enrich itself by exploiting precious metals and other valuable natural resources throughout Africa. According to a February 2023 U.S. national intelligence report, Russia used Wagner to “try to undercut U.S. leadership; present itself as an indispensable mediator and security partner; and gain military access rights and economic opportunities.”> Colin P. Clark, “What Happens Next with the Wagner Group?,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, May 18, 2023, https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/05/what-happens-next-with-the-wagner-group/; “Annual Threat Assessment Of The U.S. Intelligence Community,” Office of the Director of National Intelligence, February 6, 2023, https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2023-Unclassified-Report.pdf. The end goals of Wagner, and now the Expeditionary Corps and Volunteer Corps, remain unclear, although there is a general understanding among regional scholars that the aims of the group are centered on geopolitical and economic gain for Russia.

Organizational Structure:

The Wagner Group was not a single entity but a collection of businesses and mercenary groups operating across the globe.“Wagner Group: Council adds 11 individuals and 7 entities to EU sanctions lists,” Council of the European Union, February 25, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/02/25/wagner-group-council-adds-11-individuals-and-7-entities-to-eu-sanctions-lists/.Although Dmitry Utkin founded the group, Wagner was financially and publicly fronted by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a formerly close Putin ally.Stewart Bell, “In Prigozhin’s shadow, the Wagner Group leader who stays out of the spotlight,” Global News, June 30, 2023, https://globalnews.ca/news/9801903/prigozhin-wagner-group-leader-dmitry-utkin/. Although Wagner claimed to be an independent organization, Wagner’s operations were closely connected to the Russian military and intelligence community.“Band of Brothers: The Wagner Group and the Russian State,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, September 21, 2020, https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/band-brothers-wagner-group-and-russian-state; Nathan Hodge, “Russian warlord’s feud with Putin’s generals explodes into the open with gruesome PR campaign,” CNN, February 23, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/23/europe/russia-ukraine-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-campaign-intl-cmd/index.html. While Russian law does not allow the existence of private military companies, Wagner was registered abroad as a complex network of various front companies. “Examining the Wagner Group, a private military company that Russia has relied on,” NPR, February 6, 2023, https://www.npr.org/2023/02/06/1154739417/examining-the-wagner-group-a-private-military-company-that-russia-has-relied-on.

MOD acquired Wagner’s business entities following the dissolution of the PMC. Included among the companies was Wagner’s public relations arm, the internationally designated Foundation for the Defense of National Values (FDNV). Another Wagner company absorbed by MOD was M-Invest, which disseminated social media disinformation campaigns and staged public executions in Sudan to prop up former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. M-Invest also operated an outpost called Meroe Gold that was granted gold exploration contracts within Sudan. Wagner also reportedly operated a radio station called Lengo Sengo in CAR. The European Union sanctioned the station in 2023 for engaging in online influence operations on behalf of Russia to manipulate public opinion. “Wagner Group: Council adds 11 individuals and 7 entities to EU sanctions lists,” Council of the European Union, February 25, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/02/25/wagner-group-council-adds-11-individuals-and-7-entities-to-eu-sanctions-lists/.

Wagner worked closely with U.S.-designated entities such as the Internet Research Agency (IRA), and the Association for Free Research and International Cooperation (AFRIC). According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the IRA is a Prigozhin-owned online “troll farm,” or “troll factory.” A troll factory employs individuals who conduct disinformation propaganda activities, usually pertaining to politics and economics, on the internet. Hate speech and fake news are strategies disseminated by “trolls,” or online agitators.

Wagner worked closely with U.S.-designated entities such as the Internet Research Agency (IRA), and the Association for Free Research and International Cooperation (AFRIC). According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the IRA is a Prigozhin-owned online “troll farm,” or “troll factory.” A troll factory employs individuals who conduct disinformation propaganda activities, usually pertaining to politics and economics, on the internet. Hate speech and fake news are strategies disseminated by “trolls,” or online agitators.“MEDIA – (DIS)INFORMATION – SECURITY: Troll Factories,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Accessed May 7, 2024, https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/5/pdf/2005-deepportal2-troll-factories.pdf. Both companies have perpetrated disinformation campaigns. For example, prior to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the IRA outsourced work to individuals in Ghana and Nigeria to push content to instigate political divisions in the United States. AFRIC reportedly sponsored “phony election monitoring” in several African nations, including Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Prigozhin has also been accused of co-opting Pan-Africanist movements to promulgate anti-French and anti-Western messages. William Rampe, “What Is Russia’s Wagner Group Doing in Africa?,” Council on Foreign Relations, May 23, 2023, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-russias-wagner-group-doing-africa. Following the August 2023 deaths of both Prigozhin and Utkin, the operations of these corporations were presumably undertaken or terminated by the Russian government.Marina Dulneva, “Sowing discord: How Russia engages in African revolts to cement its influence,” The Insider, March 13, 2024, https://theins.ru/en/politics/269926.

Prigozin’s domestic commercial enterprises were acquired by the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (Federal'naya sluzhba bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii or FSB) and his communications businesses now operate under the supervision of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation (Sluzhba vneshney razvedki Rossiyskoy Federatsii or SVR).Jack Watling, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, and Nick Reynolds, “The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24,” Royal United Service Institute for Defense and Security Studies, February 2024, https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Unconventional-Weapons-final-web.pdf.

Further post-Wagner ambitions reportedly involve the opening of an official Russian military base in the southern town of Berengo, Central African Republic. The geostrategic and central location of Berengo is advantageous to Kremlin operations in the region. Additionally, Berengo hosts an airport and other necessary infrastructure to support a military base, which the Kremlin intends to use to train and meet the needs of 10,000 soldiers.Martina Schwikowski, Kossivi Tiassou, Jean Fernand Koena, “After Wagner, Russia makes new military plans in Africa,” Deutsche Welle, February 9, 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/after-wagner-russia-makes-new-military-plans-in-africa/a-68213643.

Financing:

The Wagner Group funded its brutal and far-flung operations in part by exploiting natural resources in the countries where they operated. Proceeds from gold and metal mining allowed Wagner to sustain and expand its mercenary forces.“Treasury Sanctions Illicit Gold Companies Funding Wagner Forces and Wagner Group Facilitator,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, June 27, 2023, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1581. In Syria, for example, Wagner was paid in natural resources, specifically oil and gas. By being paid in commodities and precious metals, Wagner’s various facilitators and front companies were able to evade sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe that criminalize financial cooperation with designated entities. “The Wagner Group: A Russian Symphony of Profit and Politics,” The Cipher Brief, https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/the-wagner-group-a-russian-symphony-of-profit-and-politics.

Prigozhin was often cited as one of the primary funders of Wagner, although the level of funding he allocated to the group has not been documented.Stewart Bell, “In Prigozhin’s shadow, the Wagner Group leader who stays out of the spotlight,” Global News, June 30, 2023, https://globalnews.ca/news/9801903/prigozhin-wagner-group-leader-dmitry-utkin/. According to Putin, the financing of the entire Wagner Group was fully provided by the Russian state as he claimed that from “May 2022 to May 2023, the state paid 86 billion, 262 million roubles [around $1 billion], to the Wagner Group for monetary maintenance and incentive payments.”Ukrainska Pravda, “Wagner Group is fully financed from state budget, it has received US $1 billion – Putin,” Yahoo News, June 27, 2023, https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/wagner-group-fully-financed-state-130730416.html. Since the GRU’s official takeover of Wagner, financial packages offered to the Volunteer and Expeditionary Corps outfits are set by the agency. Jack Watling, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, and Nick Reynolds, “The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24,” Royal United Service Institute for Defense and Security Studies, February 2024, https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Unconventional-Weapons-final-web.pdf. However, a significant portion of the PMC’s funding comes from mining contracts, with the group extracting around $2.5 billion from the continent between 2022 and 2024. David Patrikarakos, “Wagner rises from the ashes: Prigozhin's mercenaries return as Putin’s Nazi-inspired ‘Africa Corps’ to plunder gold and oil across the continent... as part of a new great game between Russia, China and the West, writes DAVID PATRIKARAKOS,” Daily Mail (London), February 22, 2024, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13113941/Kremlin-African-nations-Russia-Wagner-dominate-continent.html.

Recruitment:

In 2023, Wagner reportedly boasted a recruited troop size of 50,000 inside Ukraine alone. Of those 50,000 fighters, 40,000 were convicts released from Russian prisons.Phil Helsel, “What is the Wagner Group? A look at the mercenary group led by man accused of 'armed mutiny' in Russia,” NBC News, June 23, 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/what-is-the-wagner-group-rcna90923. The men were recruited for six-month contracts, with some convicts being guaranteed presidential pardons following their tours.“Russia pardons over 5,000 convicts after fighting in Ukraine with Wagner Group,” France 24, March 25, 2023, https://www.france24.com/en/russia/20230325-russia-pardons-over-5-000-convicts-after-fighting-in-ukraine-with-wagner-group. Those recruits have paid a high price for a chance at freedom. According to the White House, recruited convicts comprised 90 percent of all casualties along the front lines in Ukraine.Igor Tsikhanenka, “Wagner Group’s Use of Convicts in Ukraine Echoes Stalinist Tactics,” Voice of America, January 24, 2023, https://www.voanews.com/a/wagner-group-s-use-of-convicts-in-ukraine-echoes-stalinist-tactics/6932903.html.

While the head of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin was known for being adept at social media, using different platforms to build communication networks with military correspondents, bloggers, and potential recruits across the globe..Haley Ott, Kerry Breen, and Duarte Dias, “What is the Wagner Group, and who is Yevgeny Prigozhin? What to know about the Russian private military company,” CBS News, June 27, 2023, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wagner-group-who-is-yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-mercenary-private-military-company/. Wagner’s recruitment posts were not limited to Russian-speaking countries. Researchers discovered Wagner recruitment material translated into 16 languages across Twitter, Facebook, and other social media platforms. Among the languages featured in recruitment documents were Vietnamese, French, Polish, and Spanish. By advertising their generous compensation package of 240,000 rubles—around $2,700—per month, Wagner sought to recruit from all corners of the world. Since Wagner was not considered an international terrorist organization, its online activity was not subject to extensive moderation, which provided the group unlimited access across social media platforms. “How Russian mercenary Wagner Group uses social media to recruit new members around the world,” Euronews, June 1, 2023, https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/01/how-russian-mercenary-wagner-group-uses-social-media-to-recruit-new-members-around-the-wor.

In April 2023, the Institute for the Study of War claimed that the Wagner Group had recruited Ukrainian children to fight on the side of Russia. Videos shared on the Telegram platform showed young children training with assault rifles while alleged Wagner troops looked on.“Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 13, 2023,” Institute for the Study of War, April 13, 2023, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-13-2023.

Following the death of Prigozhin and the absorption of Wagner into the Russian Ministry of Defense (Minoborony or MOD), media sources noted that recruitment campaigns for Africa Corps were launched on Telegram in November 2023 and in December 2023 by African Initiative, an African-focused Russian media outlet. These campaigns were reportedly successful. Between December 2023 and February 2024, an estimated 20,000 troops signed up for a role in Africa, with deployment focused on Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Positions within the Africa Corps were also offered to former Wagner mercenaries as well as local residents. Although reportedly seeking to enlist 40,000 troops, units are not expected to exceed 7,000 troops as the Centre for Eastern Studies noted that at the PMC’s peak, troop numbers plateaued around 5,000 to 7,000 mercenaries.David Patrikarakos, “Wagner rises from the ashes: Prigozhin's mercenaries return as Putin's Nazi-inspired 'Africa Corps' to plunder gold and oil across the continent... as part of a new great game between Russia, China and the West, writes DAVID PATRIKARAKOS,” Daily Mail (London), February 22, 2024, https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13113941/Kremlin-African-nations-Russia-Wagner-dominate-continent.html; Miłosz Bartosiewicz and Piotr Żochowski, “The Wagner forces under a new flag: Russia’s Africa Corps in Burkina Faso,” Center for Eastern Studies, January 31, 2024, https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2024-01-31/wagner-forces-under-a-new-flag-russias-africa-corps-burkina-faso; Jack Watling, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, and Nick Reynolds, “The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24,” Royal United Service Institute for Defense and Security Studies, February 2024, https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Unconventional-Weapons-final-web.pdf.

Training:

Wagner troops were reportedly trained at the Molkino training center in Krasnodar under the supervision of the MOD. MOD was also responsible for the transportation of fighters and goods to Wagner deployments.Jack Watling, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, and Nick Reynolds, “The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24,” Royal United Service Institute for Defense and Security Studies, February 2024, https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Unconventional-Weapons-final-web.pdf.

Upon deployment, Wagner personnel claimed to provide training for local military and security forces. They also regularly provided security for prominent officials and leaders seeking indefinite terms in power. If deployed for counterterrorism, Wagner conducted high intensity operations and were not always held accountable for their actions. Haley Ott, Kerry Breen, and Duarte Dias, “What is the Wagner Group, and who is Yevgeny Prigozhin? What to know about the Russian private military company,” CBS News, June 27, 2023, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wagner-group-who-is-yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-mercenary-private-military-company/. In many cases, Wagner was supplemented by official Russian military assistance, such as in Mali, where the local armed forces received combat and surveillance aircraft from Moscow.William Rampe, “What Is Russia’s Wagner Group Doing in Africa?,” Council on Foreign Relations, May 23, 2023, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-russias-wagner-group-doing-africa.

On February 7, 2024, Volunteer Corps leader Anton Yelizarov announced the ongoing construction of the “Cossacks Camp,” a base reportedly in Rostov, Russia. According to the MOD, the base will reportedly host troops from Russia’s national guard as they prepare “a new volunteer corps formation of experienced Wagner personnel to reinforce Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and expand Russian influence in Africa.” Joe Barnes, “New Wagner leader confirms group’s integration with Russian national guard,” Telegraph (London), February 7, 2024, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/07/wagner-leader-confirms-integration-with-russian-forces/.

Under Averyanov, the Africa Corps division of the Expeditionary Corps now offers “regime survival packages” to the countries with existing Wagner contracts. These packages offer military support, economic and political protection from international watchdogs, and support from political technologists. Political technologists are propaganda agents who manipulate environments to achieve a politically desired result, such as supporting authoritarian leaders and keeping them in power.Jack Watling, Oleksandr V. Danylyuk, and Nick Reynolds, “The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24,” Royal United Service Institute for Defense and Security Studies, February 2024, https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Unconventional-Weapons-final-web.pdf; Paul Goble, “Moscow Exporting ‘Political Technologists’ Beyond Africa to Europe,” Jamestown Foundation, September 19, 2019, https://jamestown.org/program/moscow-exporting-political-technologists-beyond-africa-to-europe/.

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